Archive for the 'conscience' tag
Understanding exponential growth
Several months ago I referred to my particular interest on compound interest, forgive the repetition, and its evolution exponentially. While it would be good to always have good news about the exponential growth (as might be generated interest with compound interest), there is a problem far more complex in the world Exponentials round.
Some time ago I had heard one of the lectures of Dr. Albert Bartlett in which he explained the problems of exponential growth in areas such as energy, global population and Fossils. It also states that at some point these problems are going to be unbearable for mankind. The conference had seen on YouTube, and luckily I found it here again (the video is divided into several parts).
One example that I liked, and fairly representative, is the bacteria in a bottle.
Bacteria grow by doubling. One bacterium divides to create two, those are divided to create four, become eight, sixteen and so on. Suppose bacteria doubles every minute, which put it in an empty bottle at 11 am and found that the bottle is full at midday. There we have our regular case of sustained growth has a doubling time of one minute in a finite environment as the bottle. Now I want to ask three questions:
Number one, what time the bottle was filled to half? Well, believe it was at 11:59, one minute before 12, because they increase in number every minute.
Second question, if they were an average bacterium in that bottle at what time they would realize that space is running out? Let's look at the last minute in the bottle. At noon was full, a minute before half full, two minutes before 1 / 4 less than 1 / 8 to 1 / 16. Let me ask, 5 minutes before 12 when the bottle is filled to 3% and 97% of its space is available for development, how many of you would realize that there is a problem?
In the controversy over growth in Boulder, some years ago someone wrote to the newspaper and said there was no problem with population growth in Boulder because according to the person who wrote the letter at least fifteen times more open space we have used. Now let me ask what time it was in Boulder when the open space was fifteen times the amount of space that has already been used? The answer is 4 minutes before 12 in the Boulder Valley. Suppose that some bacteria at 11:58 realized that they had the space, then launched a major search for new bottles, where they finally find three new bottles. That is an incredible discovery is three times the total amount of resources previously thought they had, now have four bottles, before its discovery had only one. Surely this will give them a sustainable society is not it?
Do you know what your third question? How long can this growth as a result of this magnificent discovery? Chequen figures, at 12 a full bottle, there are three more, at 12:01 there are two full bottles, there are two more and 12:02 the four bottles are full. Arithmetic no longer need to evaluate it absolutely contradictory arguments have read and heard from experts who tell us in one breath that we can continue to increase our rates of consumption of fossil fuels in the next breath not to worry, that will always be able to discover new resources needed to meet the needs of our growth rates.
The example of the bacteria in the bottle is to keep it in mind ...
To see this graphically, here is a link that has pictures of this situation, in each of the critical minutes.
What do you guys?
